This is how the most likely owners of Oscar, 2018, according to the bookmakers and film esspertes (bets and forecasts on all nominees, can be seen below):
Best movie - "Three billboards on the border of Ebbing, Missouri"
Best director - Guillermo del Toro, "Water Shape"
Best actor - Gary Oldman, "Dark Times"
Best Second Planner - Sam Rockwell, "Three Billboards on the border of Ebbing, Missouri"
Best actress - Francis McDormand, "Three Billboards on the border of Ebbing, Missouri"
Best actress of the second plan - Ellison Jenny, "Tonya against all"
Best movie
Bookmakers are confident that Oscar will receive "three billboards on the border of Ebbing, Missouri" - the coefficient to win in most bookmakers less than the unit that in practice means that even earning at this rate will not work. However, you should not forget that La La Land last year was also an unequivocal favorite, and in fact, Oscar went to the "lunar light", in the forecasts of the second place. This year, second place in the bookmaker forecasts - for the "water form", which has a chance of a good one - 7 to 4. But the movieExperts are the opposite: they will win the "water form", and "three billboards" in the list of favorites put on second place.
The coefficients of bookmakers and film essperts in the category "The Best Film of the Year" were distributed like this:
Three billboards on the border of Ebbing, Missouri: Bookmaker coefficient - 1 to 1, Forecast of the CinemaSperts - 17 to 10
Water shape: Bookmaker coefficient - 7 to 4, Forecast of Cinema Speert - 7 to 4
Lady Berd: Bookmakers coefficient - 12 K 1, Forecast of the CinemaSperts - 20 K 1
Away: Bookmaker coefficient - 16 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 6 to 1
Dunkirk: Bookmaker coefficient - 40 K 1, Forecast of Cinema Speert - 50 K 1
Call me by your name: Bookmakers coefficient - 100 K 1, Forecast of the CinemaSperts - 50 K 1
Secret dossier: Bookmaker coefficient - 150 K 1, Forecast of the Camecperts - 100 K 1
Ghost thread: Bookmaker coefficient - 200 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 80 K 1
Dark times: Bookmaker coefficient - 200 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 100 K 1
Best director
Absolute, unconditional and resolved favorite - Guillermo del Toro with her "water shape", and Christopher Nolan, in which the bookmakers and film asperts unanimously agree, will not receive Oscar again. And at all there is no chance of Jordan Saw ("away") and Paul Thomas Anderson ("Ghostly Thread"), whose victory no one does not even consider.
The coefficients of bookmakers and cinemaSperts in the category "The Best Director" were distributed like this:
Guillermo del Toro ("Water Shape"): Bookmaker coefficient - 1 to 7, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 2 to 13
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk): Bookmaker coefficient - 7 to 1, Forecast of CinemaSpert - 18 to 1
Greta Gervig (Lady Bird): Bookmaker coefficient - 12 K 1, Forecast of the CinemaSperts - 40 K 1
Jordan Pil ("Away"): Bookmaker coefficient - 50 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 50 K 1
Paul Thomas Anderson ("Ghost Thread"): Bookmakers coefficient - 100 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 80 K 1
Best actor
In this category, the bets are completely useless - everyone is so confident in the victory of Gary Oldman ("Dark times"), which is still a little bit and the reception of the bets would stop at all, as unnecessary. The coefficient for the victory of Oldman hesitates from 1 to 14 to the very modest 1 to 40 ( This means that if you put 40 dollars, the profit will be only 1 dollar ). In short, there is absolutely no intrigue in this nomination and is not foreseen.
The coefficients of bookmakers and film asperts in the category "Best Actor" were distributed like this:
Gary Oldman - Dark Times: Bookmaker coefficient - 1 to 14, Forecast of the CinemaSperts - 1 to 10
Daniel Kalua - away: Bookmaker coefficient - 20 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 50 K 1
Timothy Shalam - Call me by your name: Bookmakers coefficient - 20 K 1, Forecast of the CinemaSpert - 18 to 1
Daniel Day Lewis - Ghost Thread: Bookmaker coefficient - 28 to 1, Forecast of the KinoExpert - 40 K 1
Denzel Washington - Roman Israel, Esq.: Bookmaker coefficient - 100 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 100 K 1
Best Second Planner
In this category, too, no intrigue - by collecting all important awards for "three billboards", Sam Rockwell will receive for his role, as a Hollywood Happi-End, also "Oscar". Interestingly, it is exactly the same - in 25 to 1 - bookmakers evaluate the chances of winning the Christopher Plammer, in the drama "All Money of the World" of Kevin Spacy at the last moment, and Richard Jenkins ("Water Shape"). CinemaSperts are not at all that the planmer is worthy of victory more than Jenkins. And at all, no chance of Woody Harrelson, whom, will be honest, originally nobody considered any serious contendent (and for which he was generally given a nomination, it is not entirely clear).
The coefficients of bookmakers and film aspeert in the category "Best Actor of the Second Plan" were distributed like this:
Sam Rockwell - three billboards on the border of Ebbing, Missouri: Bookmaker coefficient - 1 to 7, Forecast of the CinemaSpert - 1 to 5
Willem Defo - the project "Florida": Bookmaker coefficient - 6 to 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 10 K 1
Christopher Plammer - all the money of the world: Bookmaker coefficient - 25 K 1, Forecast of the KamenSperts - 25 K 1
Richard Jenkins - Water Shape: Bookmaker coefficient - 25 to 1, Forecast of the CinemaSperts - 50 K 1
Woody Harrelson - three billboards on the border of Ebbing, Missouri: Bookmaker coefficient - 50 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 80 K 1
Best actress
As in the case of the category "Best Actor", the winner in the category "Best Actress" is actually determined in advance - it is expected, Francis McDormand ("Three Billboards on the border of Ebbing, Missouri). On the second place and bookmakers, and the film asperts put Sirsu Ronan, but further opinions were divided: the bookmakers unexpectedly believe that a good chance of Margot Robbie, and experts are third place to give Sally Hawkins for the "water shape".
The coefficients of bookmakers and filmseksperts in the category "Best Actress" were distributed like this:
Francis McDormand - Three Billboards on the border of Ebbing, Missouri: Bookmaker coefficient - 1 to 12, Forecast of Cinema Speert - 2nd to 13
Sirsha Ronan - Lady Berd: Bookmaker coefficient - 15 to 1, Forecast of the CinemaSperts - 16 K 1
Margo Robbie - Tonya against all: Bookmaker coefficient - 16 K 1, Forecast of the Kamenskpert - 50 K 1
Sally Hawkins - Water Shape: Bookmaker coefficient - 20 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 33 K 1
Meril Strip - Secret Dossier: Bookmakers coefficient - 100 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 80 K 1
Best actress of the second plan
Ellison Jenny ("Tony against All") is significantly ahead of its rolleries, so the winner is unequivocal here. The nearest rival of Ellison is Lori Metkaf ("Lady Berd"), the remaining coefficients are behind the coefficients so much that they can not be considered at all.
The coefficients of bookmakers and film asperts in the category "Best Actress of the Second Plan" were distributed like this:
Ellison Jenny - Tonya against all: Bookmaker coefficient - 1 to 6, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 2 to 7
Lori Metkaf - Lady Berd: Bookmaker coefficient - 6 to 1, Forecast of the CinemaSperts - 5 to 1
Mary J. Blige - Farm Madbound: Bookmaker coefficient - 20 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 50 K 1
Leslie Manville - Ghost Thread: Bookmaker coefficient - 25 to 1, Forecast of the CinemaSperts - 50 K 1
Octavia Spencer - Water shape: Bookmakers coefficient - 40 K 1, Forecast of CinemaSperts - 66 K 1